The Monty Hall Problem is something that’s taken up an awful lot of time in our house this year. Some people just don’t get it. I’m one of them. The theory is this: Imagine you’re a contestant on a game show. You’re presented with three closed doors and you can keep the prize that you choose when you open a door.
Behind two doors are two pigs, and the third door hides a shiny red Ferrari. You make your choice without knowing which prize you’ve selected, based probably on gut feeling. But then the game show host opens one of the other doors – revealing a curly-tailed, honking baby pig. Now, do you stick with your original choice of door, or do you swap to the other unopened one?
I see this as a 50/50 decision: two closed doors. So why not stick with your original choice? It’s either the right door or it’s the wrong one – same as the other option – right? No, apparently not. It’s not a 50/50; the probability of the Ferrari being behind the other door is actually 66%. So compared to your original choice, which is only 33%, you’ve got more chance of winning the shiny red sports car if you swap!
So, when one door closes in life and another one opens, should you walk through it – or knock on the next door…? I’m a fairly numerate person but I don’t love maths. I can work out a decent tip in a restaurant easily enough, deduct VAT or calculate the percentage of time I spend on social media compared to presenting training courses; but I’m no Carol Vorderman. In my defence, I understand the theory of why the third door has double the chance of hiding the Ferrari, I just don’t agree with it. What do you think?
Anyway, doors are opening all over the place this week, and the one I’ve chosen to walk through leads to Las Vegas. If I don’t post a blog next Monday it’s because I’m a) road tripping through the desert with no wifi; b) caught up in the excitement and lost all track of time; or c) gone awol!!
Elvis wisely said about Vegas: “How I wish that there were more than the twenty-four hours in the day. ‘Cause even if there were forty more I wouldn’t sleep a minute away…” Viva indeed!!
If you need more hours in the day you might be interested to know I’ll be running an open time management workshop this autumn. Email me for details, or ask me here: @WeekendWitch.